Markets in a Minute
with Gary Dugan
Gary Dugan is a seasoned investment professional with a 37-year track record as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at some of the world’s leading banks and wealth managers in Europe, Middle East and Asia.
He is currently the CEO & CIO at The Global CIO Office and partners with SDAX to provide the latest market and financial insights.
28 November 2023
No Cold Turkey
The financial markets have maintained their recent upward run, which has been fueled by a stream of seemingly positive developments that have boosted equities and high-yield bonds. However, we caution against the current wave of optimism, which could face a sharp reversal if the widely anticipated gentle economic deceleration fails to materialise.
21 November 2023
How Can 0.1% Feel So Good?
Last week witnessed a notable boost to investor sentiments as the 0.1% outperformance of U.S. inflation data versus expectations prompted a discernible uptick in risk appetites. The impact resonated through the global bond markets, with a significant decline in yields—U.S. 10-year notes receded by 20 basis points (bps), paralleled by a steeper 30 bps reduction in New Zealand.
14 November 2023
A Festival of Confusion not Light
As we celebrate the Festival of Light, investors are in search of greater clarity amid the haze of conflicting economic data and central bank statements. Best of luck to you navigating these uncertain times.
7 November 2023
Nothing is For Certain
It does not feel like an environment for elevated risk taking. While the markets enjoyed the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the subsequent soft US employment report, as investors (and the central bankers) we are still living from data point to data point in the US at present.
2 November 2023
Monthly Review of Macro and Market Performance
Through October, data reports for the global economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the United States and some stabilisation in China. Third quarter US GDP growth came in well ahead of expectations at 4.9%. Still, strong consumer spending growth was a positive feature (Chart 1).
31 October 2023
Strong US Growth too Hot to Handle?
Astute investors following the US economy would find the current trend of robust growth and persistent inflation concerning. That economic dynamic has had the Federal Reserve appear worried, too, and as we approach this week’s FOMC meeting, it’s widely anticipated that the Fed will keep the interest rates unchanged.
24 October 2023
Mounting Headwinds to Markets
In our latest presentation to a discerning group of private clients and investment professionals, we conducted a poll regarding the outlook for inflation in the United States over the next two years. The query posed was straightforward: Where will US inflation stand in two years? The results were telling, with only a mere 20% of the respondents envisioning a scenario where inflation hovers within the Federal Reserve’s target range of 1% to 3%.
17 October 2023
It doesn't get any better, it gets tougher
The Middle East is at the centre of global geopolitics once again – and this time for some very unfortunate reasons. Whether the developments will have a bearing on the financial markets is something that only time will tell, but the profound human suffering that has affected so many lives will certainly affect our collective psyche.
10 October 2023
Don't get Anchored on the Wrong Past
In times such as these, investors need help in gauging the true value of the markets. For them, one of the toughest calls to take is estimating the fair value of the US 10-year government bond yield. In the past five years, the US 10-year government bond yield has ranged between as low as 0.51% and (very recently) as high as 4.8%.
3 October 2023
A Quarterly Turning Point
The third quarter saw almost all asset classes end in the red. While global growth has remained robust, neither equities nor bonds could make any headway during the quarter as markets remained worried about central bank policies and the persistence of inflation.
26 September 2023
A Wake Up Call from the Fed
The US and, to a large extent, the world economy are finally coming to terms with the somewhat perplexing reality of resilient growth and persistent inflation. While markets have long wished for interest rates to decline, the Fed has found little room to maneuver in the face of rebounding growth and an improving unemployment situation.
19 September 2023
Policy Makers Still Hard at Work
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce a further rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. However, the release of a fresh round of economic projections from the central bank will shape the mood of the market. We expect the Fed to signal that a further rate hike in the near future cannot be ruled out.
14 September 2023
Macro and Markets Monthly August 2023
The global economy has become one of marked contrasts between the robustness of US growth and the struggles of Europe, particularly China. Robust economic data out of the US in the early phase of the month led to economists upgrading their GDP forecasts.
12 September 2023
Still robust growth and more inflation
Do not underestimate one of the key agreements at the G20 meetings in Delhi India, the announcement of a landmark India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The initiative has huge potential implications.
5 September 2023
Positively Negative
August saw a repeat of the 2022 syndrome. Like in 2022, both equities and bond markets delivered negative returns in August. The basic tenet of a diversified multi-asset portfolio is that equities and bonds are negatively correlated.
29 August 2023
Central Bankers Attempt to Climb Out of a Hole
Few surprises emerged from the foothills of the Teton Range in Jackson Hole last week. For some time now, it has been evident that policy makers are still concerned about the persisting inflation and the signs of a re-acceleration in growth in the United States.
22 August 2023
Maybe we should talk about 5%
The “shock” of a reacceleration in global growth even as core inflation persists and remains sticky is pushing investors – and economists – to consider levels of long-term interest rates that were previously unthinkable.
15 August 2023
Testing Times
Some economists drew comfort from last week’s US inflation report, but we believe it still does not paint a rosy picture. Core inflation, which peaked at 6.6% year-on-year last September, is still at 4.7%, indicating it remains sticky and high…
8 August 2023
US not ready to Samba
The US asset markets managed to pull themselves out of a bit of a tailspin last week. Investors sold off both equities and bonds and the recent dollar rally lost some momentum…
3 August 2023
Macro and Markets Monthly July 2023
In the early part of the month, the financial markets had fretted that global growth bordered on a mild recession. However, several data points from the US brought comfort…
1 August 2023
Growth Challenges the Market
There was a lot of news and central bank action to digest last week. Growth remains robust, inflation a little less threatening – good news for the markets but buy wisely…
25 July 2023
Look out for What they say, not What they do
There are widespread expectations that the Fed will impose a 25 basis point rate hike this week, but the markets will be more keen on what the Fed has to say rather than what it actually does…
18 July 2023
Taking the Edge off the Risks
Last week’s good US inflation report, which showed prices increased at their slowest pace in two years, somewhat blunts the risks of very high interest rates and has reinforced the…
11 July 2023
It's Getting Hot Out There
Last week was unprecedented at least on one count: the World witnessed the highest average temperature on record, not once, but thrice during the week…
4 July 2023
Central Bankers Still Hard at Work
It was amply clear from the speeches at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal that the battle against inflation is far from over. Speakers after speakers were unanimous in their views that a lot was required to be done…
28 June 2023
Geopolitics to the Fore Again
The events unfolding in Russia over the past few days have highlighted the fragility of global geopolitics…
20 June 2023
Taking a Breather
As we had suspected, the Fed took a breather last week choosing to temporarily pause its rate hike cycle…
13 Jun 2023
The Skipping Fed
The FOMC board members appear convinced about not increasing interest rates at this week’s meeting…
6 Jun 2023
Goldilocks faces off to the Fed Wolf
Investors’ interpretation of current economic data has been rather perverse. Equity markets have …
30 May 2023
Inflation Fight
The market’s wishful thinking is not coming to fruition. Inflation continues to be a problem …
22 May 2023
Japan Inc is back…
As expected, the US headline inflation rate fell to 4.9% in April. With an increase in the Fed funds rate and …
16 May 2023
Really?
As expected, the US headline inflation rate fell to 4.9% in April. With an increase in the Fed funds rate and …
9 May 2023
Stuck in the Grey Zone
Recent economic data have neither painted a picture of exuberance nor of utter despondency. Investors …
26 Apr 2023
Modest Market Returns in the Past Week as Inflation Pressure Persists
Last week was relatively quiet in both the bond and equity markets, with only modest returns. However …
18 Apr 2023
The Peaking of the United States of America
In meetings with many global investors last week, I was struck by the tangible change in attitude regarding …
11 Apr 2023
History is Not on the Side of a Fed Rate Cut
Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a cut in rates by the Fed, it is evident …
3 Apr 2023
Q1 2023 Market Review- Better Than It Seemed
Growth forecasts have continued to inch up, and the overall inflation scenario still needs to improve.
