What the Vote Won’t Settle

Americans are voting today in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. For markets, that sounds like the kind of event that should remove uncertainty once the votes are counted. 

This time, it may do the opposite. 

A Democratic gain in either chamber could bring greater scrutiny of President Trump’s agenda and more legislative bargaining. Continued Republican control could give the administration greater room to pursue its priorities. Yet neither outcome guarantees an immediate change in tariffs or a calmer trading environment. S&P Global’s scenario analysis expects the president to continue using executive action, particularly on trade, across the possible outcomes. 

So while the election will answer one question, who controls Congress, it may leave many of the questions businesses and investors care about most unresolved. That matters well beyond Washington. 

The Vote Arrives at an Awkward Moment 

Markets are already dealing with more than politics. Wall Street fell sharply last Friday after disappointing results from Amazon and Intel raised fresh doubts about the durability of the AI investment boom. The Nasdaq lost more than 3.5 per cent that day and almost 7 per cent over October. At the same time, the US economy remains firm, inflation is still uncomfortable and markets continue to see a significant possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase before year end. 

That is an awkward combination. Investors are questioning whether companies can earn enough from the enormous sums being committed to AI, while persistent inflation keeps borrowing costs high and limits the room for monetary relief. The Federal Reserve reinforced that tension last week when it held its policy rate at 3.75 to 4.00 per cent after September’s increase. Two policymakers wanted another rise, economic activity remains strong and domestic spending resilient, yet inflation has not returned comfortably to target. A pause, in other words, is not the same as an all-clear. 

The election therefore lands in a market that is already less certain about several assumptions at once. The political result will matter, but it will not make the questions around inflation, interest rates or corporate returns disappear. 

Winning Congress Is Not the Same as Changing Policy 

There is a natural tendency to treat elections as turning points. One side gains seats, the balance of power shifts, and markets begin pricing a new policy direction. The relationship may be less straightforward this time. 

A different balance in Congress can affect legislation, oversight and the amount of political bargaining required in Washington. But trade policy does not sit entirely with Congress. The continued use of executive action means tariffs and other trade measures may persist even if the political balance changes. 

That distinction matters for businesses because the headline result tells us who has political power, but it does not automatically tell us how tariffs will change, which products will be affected, when a new measure will take effect or how aggressively existing rules will be enforced. For markets, those details can matter more than the election-night headline itself.  

Singapore’s Exposure Does Not Stop at the US Border 

For Singapore, the election is not a distant political event. The US remains deeply connected to the regional economy through demand, investment, finance and supply chains, which means the effects of US policy can arrive here without travelling in a straight line. 

A local supplier may serve a factory elsewhere in Asia whose final customer is in the US. A logistics company may move goods through a regional supply chain that depends on American demand. A manufacturer may not face a tariff itself, yet still feel the effect if its customer delays investment because the rules around future market access are unclear. Changes in US demand or trade policy can therefore travel through Asia before reaching Singapore’s factories, logistics businesses and service providers. Tariffs can raise costs and reduce orders, while uncertainty itself can cause companies to postpone investment. 

This is why the Singapore question is not simply whether one election outcome is better than another. It is whether the result materially changes the operating environment for the businesses connected to the US economy, directly or indirectly. The answer may take longer to emerge than the votes. 

Singapore Is Already Moving at Different Speeds 

That uncertainty also arrives when Singapore’s own economy is producing a more complicated set of signals. Manufacturing output grew 3.4 per cent year on year in September, down sharply from 15.4 per cent in August and the slowest pace since August 2025. Electronics and semiconductor growth moderated, while biomedical production fell. Output is still 9.8 per cent higher over the first nine months of the year, so this is not a story of contraction. It is a story of momentum becoming less uniform. 

The labour market shows something similar. Singapore added 27,700 jobs in the third quarter, yet resident unemployment edged up to 3.0 per cent and 4,800 people were retrenched. Hiring remains stronger in areas such as healthcare, education and transport, while jobseekers in finance, technology and other internationally exposed industries face fewer vacancies and longer transitions. 

These figures can coexist because different parts of the economy are moving in different directions. That makes external uncertainty more consequential because a change in US demand or trade policy will not necessarily affect Singapore evenly. Internationally exposed sectors are likely to feel it differently from domestic services or construction, just as today’s labour market already looks very different depending on where someone works. 

Watch What Happens After the Result 

For businesses, the temptation after an election is to move quickly from uncertainty to conclusion. This result may require more patience. 

Singapore companies should pay attention to actual policy announcements, implementation dates and product coverage rather than assume that control of Congress settles the tariff outlook. Clear documentation of where goods are made and compliance with export restrictions will remain important whichever way the political balance turns. 

The broader response is equally practical. Diversifying customers and suppliers reduces dependence on any single market. Making fuller use of existing trade agreements preserves alternatives when conditions change. Maintaining reliable compliance becomes more valuable when rules are less predictable. 

None of these measures removes uncertainty. They reduce the cost of being wrong about what comes next, and for a small economy whose fortunes depend heavily on trade, investment and confidence abroad, that matters. 

What the Vote Won’t Settle 

The US midterms will determine control of Congress, and the result will shape the political environment in Washington over the next two years. What it will not necessarily settle is the direction of tariffs, the use of executive authority on trade, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, or the willingness of businesses to keep investing while the rules remain uncertain. 

Those are the questions Singapore will ultimately feel. The most useful response, therefore, is not to treat election night as the moment when uncertainty disappears. It is to watch what follows: the policies announced, the rules implemented, the markets affected and the business decisions that change as a result. 

The votes will tell us who controls Congress. For Singapore, the more important question begins the morning after: what does that control actually change?