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Equities and Gold have the Edge over Bonds
The risk-on sentiment in the market remains evident, firmly supported by recent economic data flow. We note that economists – not wanting to be caught off guard – have been busy upgrading their current-year GDP forecasts for the United States and China over the past few weeks. Even the European economy appears to be finally stabilising. The consensus GDP growth forecast for the US is up to 2.6%, with some more upbeat estimates suggesting an even better 3.0% growth. Economists are also increasingly confident that China will hit its 5% growth target. In our view, the recently announced government policies can pull forward a good measure of activity to the current quarter.
Are We Seeing Reflation?
The dialogue in the markets has made a subtle shift in the last few weeks. Its no longer about the urgent need for large rate cuts and more about the building confidence in a possible acceleration of global growth – a reflation.
No One-Way Bet
It all looked too easy: a US soft landing, lower inflation, and a compliant-with-market-wishes Fed that was seemingly prepared to deliver to the market further 50bps rate cuts. It was easy money for investors, and bonds and equities rallied.
Q3 Macro and Markets Review
It happened – US fed funds rates finally peaked. The Fed’s sprung a small surprise and cut interest rates by 50bps against a marginal majority view that the fed would only cut rates by 25bps. The accompanying statement and dot plot showed that the market was right to anticipate further consistent cuts from future Fed meetings. The peaking of US rates has acted as a catalyst for better performance from equities and bonds as the quarter closed.
A World of Sharp Contrasts
While the US equity market continues to push higher, the economic backdrop remains mixed. Data released last week showed that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.7 in September, with the “present situation” sub-index declining sharply, indicating a potential economic downturn. Historical evidence suggests that a 20% decline in the current situation sub-index often precedes a recession. The ratio of consumers finding it difficult to get a job has worsened, predicting a rise in unemployment to 5.3% and signalling labour market pressure.
Insights
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